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Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Zlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Zlin 2-4 at Stadion Letna, Relegation Group - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.47 xG and Teplice 1.60 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Teplice outscored their 1.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.04 / defence 1.37 against Teplice attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 34% | Draw 26% | Teplice 40%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 56%, Teplice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Teplice's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zlin 1.19 PPG, Teplice 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights