🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Teplice 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zlin beat Teplice 3-2 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.13 xG and Teplice 1.49 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.92 / defence 1.35 against Teplice attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 27% | Draw 30% | Teplice 43%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Zlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 54%, Teplice 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Teplice's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zlin 1.11 PPG, Teplice 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights