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Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zlin beat Slovan Liberec 1-0 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.54 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.68 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.01 / defence 1.17 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.13 / defence 1.15, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 35% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 41%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Zlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 40%, Slovan Liberec 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Zlin conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights