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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Zlin edge out Slovácko 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zlin beat Slovácko 1-0 at Stadion Letna, Relegation Group - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.66 xG and Slovácko 1.46 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.03 / defence 1.36 against Slovácko attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 42% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 33%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 56%, Slovácko 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Slovácko's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zlin 1.12 PPG, Slovácko 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights