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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Zlin 1-3 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.24 xG and Slavia Praha 1.65 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.08 / defence 1.13 against Slavia Praha attack 1.35 / defence 0.84, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 28% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 46%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 48%, Slavia Praha 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights