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Dominant Zlin run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Sigma Olomouc.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zlin beat Sigma Olomouc 5-0 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.01 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.54 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 24% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 49%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Zlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 44%, Sigma Olomouc 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zlin 1.28 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights