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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zlin and Pardubice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zlin and Pardubice finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.33 xG and Pardubice 1.23 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Pardubice attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 35% | Draw 34% | Pardubice 31%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 33%, Pardubice 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Pardubice's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights