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Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zlin beat Mlada Boleslav 3-2 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.29 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.51 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.05 / defence 1.19, drawn from 3/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 32% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 42%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Zlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 33%, Mlada Boleslav 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zlin scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights