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Karviná cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Zlin 1-3 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.68 xG and Karviná 1.59 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against Karviná attack 1.10 / defence 1.50, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 39% | Draw 26% | Karviná 35%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 38%, Karviná 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Karviná's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zlin 1.44 PPG, Karviná 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights