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Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Zlin 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Zlin 1-2 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.39 xG and Hradec Králové 1.25 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Hradec Králové attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 40% | Draw 27% | Hradec Králové 33%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 38%, Hradec Králové 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights