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Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Zlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Zlin 0-3 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.58 xG and FK Jablonec 1.27 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Zlin fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FK Jablonec outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.03 / defence 1.23 against FK Jablonec attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 43% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 29%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 50%, FK Jablonec 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights