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Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Zlin 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Zlin 0-1 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.08 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.28 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zlin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 27% | Draw 35% | Bohemians 1905 37%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 43%, Bohemians 1905 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Bohemians 1905 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights