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Zlin and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 11, as Zlin and Baník Ostrava drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 0.93 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.06 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.79 / defence 0.82, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zlin 29% | Draw 35% | Baník Ostrava 36%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 40%, Baník Ostrava 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zlin's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights