Teplice vs Zlin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Teplice welcome Zlin to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Teplice carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Teplice, 5 for Zlin and 1 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 3–1 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Zlin in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Zlin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 43% | Zlin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 2.21 xG and Zlin 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.094 / defence 1.219 | Zlin attack 1.064 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.231. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Teplice games / 38 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 51% | Draw 22% | Zlin 27%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Zlin 3.70. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Zlin 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 51% | Draw 22% | Zlin 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Teplice 2.21 / Zlin 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.094 / def 1.219 | Zlin attack 1.064 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Teplice (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Zlin xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Zlin kick off?
Teplice vs Zlin is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
Where is Teplice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Zlin part of?
Teplice vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 51% chance of winning, Zlin a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Teplice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
Record (10 meetings): Teplice 4W | Draws 1 | Zlin 5W.
What form are Teplice and Zlin in?
Teplice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Zlin (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Teplice's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.47
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.80
1.60
Zlin xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.56
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
11%
9.07
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
3%
33.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Teplice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Teplice and 1.60 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice's recent record stands at 15W 13D 16L from 44 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 24L across 44 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.32 PPG, Zlin on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 7W 5D 9L from 21 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 4W 5D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.16 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 15W 13D 16L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Zlin have gone 11W 9D 24L in their last 44 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Zlin away?
Teplice's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.24 PPG; Zlin away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Teplice or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Zlin in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Teplice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Zlin won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
1
Draws
5
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Zlin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Zlin 1-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 43%, Zlin 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Teplice) and 48% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 33% of games; Zlin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Teplice's recent matches and 57% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Teplice's recent games and 48% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Zlin tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Zlin in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.