Teplice 0-2 Zbrojovka Brno – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Zbrojovka Brno at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have recorded 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zbrojovka Brno have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.67 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.33. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Teplice have won 0, Zbrojovka Brno 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Zbrojovka Brno in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 67% and Zbrojovka Brno 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 67% | Zbrojovka Brno 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 2.07 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.388 / defence 1.234 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.804 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.395. Teplice carry an above-average attack strength of 1.388 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Teplice games / 3 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 53% | Draw 21% | Zbrojovka Brno 25%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Zbrojovka Brno 4.00. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Zbrojovka Brno 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 53% | Draw 21% | Zbrojovka Brno 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Teplice 2.07 / Zbrojovka Brno 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.388 / def 1.234 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.804 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Teplice (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Zbrojovka Brno xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Teplice 0 - 2 Zbrojovka Brno.
Where is Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 53% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno?
Record (3 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 3 | Zbrojovka Brno 0W.
What form are Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Teplice (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Teplice's attack rating (1.39) and Zbrojovka Brno's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
53%
1.88
21%
4.66
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.45
1.38
Zbrojovka Brno xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
13%
7.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
3%
31.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Teplice and 1.38 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Teplice come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zbrojovka Brno sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.33 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Teplice's scoring rate against Zbrojovka Brno's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Zbrojovka Brno in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Zbrojovka Brno
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Teplice or Zbrojovka Brno been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Zbrojovka Brno in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Teplice's record when hosting Zbrojovka Brno specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Teplice
3
Draws
1
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 4 meetings on record, Teplice have won 0, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Teplice 0-2 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno?
Zbrojovka Brno have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Teplice at 67%, Zbrojovka Brno at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Teplice) and 33% (Zbrojovka Brno).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zbrojovka Brno in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Zbrojovka Brno?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Teplice's games and 67% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Teplice's recent games and 33% of Zbrojovka Brno's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zbrojovka Brno cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zbrojovka Brno beat Teplice 0-2 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 2.07 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.38 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Teplice fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.39 / defence 1.23 against Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.80 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 53% | Draw 21% | Zbrojovka Brno 25%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Zbrojovka Brno win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 67%, Zbrojovka Brno 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.33 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zbrojovka Brno win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Zbrojovka Brno conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.