Teplice vs Sparta Praha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Arena Na Stinadlech plays host to Teplice versus Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Monday 14 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Teplice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sparta Praha (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 0.50 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Sparta Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 1–4 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 49% versus Sparta Praha 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 40% | Sparta Praha 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.25 xG and Sparta Praha 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.078 / defence 1.152 | Sparta Praha attack 1.083 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.183. Data: 41 Teplice games / 41 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 31% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 42%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Sparta Praha 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Teplice 50% | Sparta Praha 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Monday 14 Dec 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 31% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Teplice 1.25 / Sparta Praha 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.078 / def 1.152 | Sparta Praha attack 1.083 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sparta Praha xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Sparta Praha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 14 December 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
Where is Teplice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sparta Praha part of?
Teplice vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 31% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Teplice and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
Record (10 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 4 | Sparta Praha 6W.
What form are Teplice and Sparta Praha in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.08x) against Teplice's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
31%
3.21
27%
3.68
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.72
1.48
Sparta Praha xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
7%
14.06
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Teplice and 1.48 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 15W 14D 16L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha's form line: 28W 8D 9L from 45 games, 2.04 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 11W 4D 7L from 22 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.91 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 28W 8D 9L in their last 45 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.23 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Teplice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Praha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Teplice
4
Draws
6
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Sparta Praha 4-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 46%, Sparta Praha 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Teplice) and 54% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 54%; Teplice have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Teplice's recent matches and 36% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Teplice's recent games and 54% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.