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Poisson model rates Teplice at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Teplice host Slovácko at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Teplice have posted 6W 1D 3L at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Slovácko have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

On current form, Teplice have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Teplice, 3 for Slovácko and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Teplice in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Slovácko in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Slovácko 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 41% | Slovácko 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.45 xG and Slovácko 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.862 / defence 0.824 | Slovácko attack 0.787 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. Slovácko bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Teplice games / 60 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 53% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 20%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Slovácko 5.00. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 30% | Slovácko 50% BTTS from recent games.

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