Teplice 1-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Slovácko at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Teplice have posted 6W 1D 3L at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Teplice have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Teplice, 3 for Slovácko and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Slovácko 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 41% | Slovácko 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.45 xG and Slovácko 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.862 / defence 0.824 | Slovácko attack 0.787 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. Slovácko bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Teplice games / 60 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 53% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 20%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Slovácko 5.00. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 30% | Slovácko 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 53% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Teplice 1.45 / Slovácko 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.862 / def 0.824 | Slovácko attack 0.787 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Teplice (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Slovácko xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slovácko kick off?
Teplice vs Slovácko kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Teplice 1 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is Teplice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovácko part of?
Teplice vs Slovácko is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 53% chance of winning, Slovácko a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Teplice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
Record (6 meetings): Teplice 2W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 3W.
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Slovácko (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.86x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.68
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.23
0.78
Slovácko xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
5%
21.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Teplice and 0.78 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice come into this having played 66 games, going 20W 17D 29L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.14 PPG from 66 outings (19W 18D 29L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.17 PPG, Slovácko on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Teplice's home form reads 13W 9D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.00 points per game from 33 outings (9W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.02 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 20W 17D 29L in their last 66 games (1.17 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 19W 18D 29L in their last 66 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovácko away?
Teplice's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.45 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Teplice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Slovácko in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
2
Draws
4
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Slovácko have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Teplice 1-1 Slovácko.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 46%, Slovácko 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Teplice) and 52% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Slovácko in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Teplice's recent matches and 42% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Teplice's recent games and 52% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Slovácko 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Slovácko 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Relegation Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.45 xG and Slovácko 0.78 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.86 / defence 0.82 against Slovácko attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 53% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 20%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 41%, Slovácko 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovácko's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.17 PPG, Slovácko 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.