Teplice vs Slovácko – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Slovácko at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Teplice have posted 4W 3D 3L at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Teplice have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Teplice, 4 for Slovácko and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (41 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (41 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Slovácko 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Slovácko 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 2.06 xG and Slovácko 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.242 / defence 1.134 | Slovácko attack 0.798 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 36 Teplice games / 36 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 56% | Draw 21% | Slovácko 23%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Slovácko 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Slovácko 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 56% | Draw 21% | Slovácko 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Teplice 2.06 / Slovácko 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.242 / def 1.134 | Slovácko attack 0.798 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Teplice (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Slovácko xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slovácko kick off?
Teplice vs Slovácko is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
Where is Teplice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovácko part of?
Teplice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 56% chance of winning, Slovácko a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Teplice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
Record (10 meetings): Teplice 4W | Draws 2 | Slovácko 4W.
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in?
Teplice (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Slovácko (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 1.24x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
56%
1.78
21%
4.73
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.32
1.25
Slovácko xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
13%
7.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
3%
34.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Teplice and 1.25 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 13D 15L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 0.90 PPG from 41 outings (9W 10D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.27 PPG, Slovácko on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Teplice's home form reads 8W 5D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 0.68 points per game from 22 outings (3W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.00 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 13W 13D 15L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 9W 10D 22L in their last 41 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovácko away?
Teplice's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.32 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Teplice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Slovácko in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
2
Draws
4
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Slovácko have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Teplice 1-1 Slovácko.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 46%, Slovácko 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Teplice) and 36% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 27% of games; Slovácko in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Teplice's recent matches and 46% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Teplice's recent games and 36% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.