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Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Slovácko 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Slovácko 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Relegation Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.45 xG and Slovácko 0.78 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.86 / defence 0.82 against Slovácko attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 53% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 20%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 41%, Slovácko 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Slovácko's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.17 PPG, Slovácko 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights