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Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Slovácko 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Slovácko 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.97 xG and Slovácko 1.21 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Slovácko landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Slovácko attack 1.02 / defence 1.38, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 53% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 22%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Slovácko's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.15 PPG, Slovácko 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights