Teplice 1-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this season.
Slavia Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 1.30 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.80 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Slavia Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 54% versus Slavia Praha 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 48% | Slavia Praha 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.88 xG and Slavia Praha 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.036 / defence 1.234 | Slavia Praha attack 1.344 / defence 0.569. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.199. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.569 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Teplice games / 48 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 15% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 62%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 6.67 | Draw 4.17 | Slavia Praha 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 80% | Slavia Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 15% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Teplice 0.88 / Slavia Praha 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.036 / def 1.234 | Slavia Praha attack 1.344 / def 0.569 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Slavia Praha xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Teplice 1 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slavia Praha part of?
Teplice vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 15% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 62% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Teplice and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
Record (6 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 2 | Slavia Praha 4W.
What form are Teplice and Slavia Praha in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.34x) against Teplice's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
15%
6.88
24%
4.24
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.87
1.99
Slavia Praha xG
6.88
15%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
14%
7.32
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
2%
50.35
26%
3.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Teplice and 1.99 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 16W 12D 24L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha's form line: 41W 9D 2L from 52 games, 2.54 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.39 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 18W 7D 1L from 26 away games — 2.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.21 scored and 0.58 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 16W 12D 24L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 41W 9D 2L in their last 52 (2.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.35 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.35 PPG.
Have Teplice or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Teplice
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Teplice 0-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 54%, Slavia Praha 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Teplice) and 46% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Teplice's recent matches and 46% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Teplice's recent games and 46% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Slavia Praha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Slavia Praha 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.88 xG and Slavia Praha 1.99 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slavia Praha landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.04 / defence 1.23 against Slavia Praha attack 1.34 / defence 0.57, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 15% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 62%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Teplice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 48%, Slavia Praha 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Teplice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.