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Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Teplice 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Teplice 1-2 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.99 xG and Plzen 1.39 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Plzen attack 1.19 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 23% | Draw 35% | Plzen 42%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 46%, Plzen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Plzen's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights