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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plzen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Teplice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Teplice 0-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.42 xG and Plzen 1.32 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Teplice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Plzen attack 1.05 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 39% | Draw 26% | Plzen 35%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 47%, Plzen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Plzen's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights