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Poisson model rates Karviná at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

AGC Arena Na Stinadlech plays host to Teplice versus Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Karviná have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Teplice, 1.70 for Karviná — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Teplice 2W, Karviná 2W, 4D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–4 with Karviná winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Karviná 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Karviná 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.43 xG and Karviná 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.879 / defence 0.924 | Karviná attack 1.263 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.268. Karviná have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Teplice games / 50 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 36% | Draw 25% | Karviná 38%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Karviná 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Karviná are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Karviná 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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