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Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Karviná 2-0 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.43 xG and Karviná 1.48 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Karviná landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Karviná attack 1.26 / defence 1.18, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 36% | Draw 25% | Karviná 38%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Karviná 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Karviná's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.25 PPG, Karviná 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights