Teplice 1-3 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Karviná have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Karviná are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Teplice 2W, Karviná 0W, 3D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Karviná 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 46% | Karviná 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.73 xG and Karviná 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.999 / defence 1.194 | Karviná attack 0.898 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.069. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Teplice games / 34 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 51% | Draw 24% | Karviná 25%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Karviná 4.00. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Teplice dominate the H2H record, yet Karviná are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Karviná (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | Karviná 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 51% | Draw 24% | Karviná 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Teplice 1.73 / Karviná 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.999 / def 1.194 | Karviná attack 0.898 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Teplice (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Karviná xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Karviná kick off?
Teplice vs Karviná kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Karviná?
Teplice 1 - 3 Karviná.
Where is Teplice vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Karviná part of?
Teplice vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 51% chance of winning, Karviná a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Teplice and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Karviná?
Record (5 meetings): Teplice 2W | Draws 3 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Teplice and Karviná in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Karviná (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Teplice's attack rating (1.00) and Karviná's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.90x) against Teplice's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.22
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.88
1.15
Karviná xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
4%
22.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Teplice and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Teplice and 1.15 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 12W 9D 18L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Karviná's form line: 10W 8D 21L from 39 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Teplice against 0.97 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (7W 7D 5L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 5W 4D 10L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.97 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Karviná
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Karviná in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 12W 9D 18L in their last 39 games (1.15 PPG), while Karviná have gone 10W 8D 21L in their last 39 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Karviná away?
Teplice's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.47 PPG; Karviná away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Teplice
4
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Karviná?
From 9 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Karviná have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Karviná?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 42%, Karviná 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Teplice) and 53% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 32% of games; Karviná in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Teplice's recent matches and 42% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Teplice's recent games and 53% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Karviná tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Karviná in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Teplice 1-3 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.73 xG and Karviná 1.15 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.00 / defence 1.19 against Karviná attack 0.90 / defence 1.21, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 51% | Draw 24% | Karviná 25%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Karviná win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 46%, Karviná 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.15 PPG, Karviná 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.