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Shock result as FK Jablonec defy the odds to beat Teplice 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.21 xG and FK Jablonec 1.18 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against FK Jablonec attack 0.93 / defence 0.82, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 37% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 35%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 49%, FK Jablonec 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights