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Shock result as FK Jablonec defy the odds to beat Teplice 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.44 xG and FK Jablonec 1.08 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against FK Jablonec attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 44% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 27%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 43%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.18 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights