🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Teplice run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bohemians 1905.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Bohemians 1905 3-0 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.19 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.34 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 32% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 39%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Bohemians 1905 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.22 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights