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Poisson model rates Teplice at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Teplice host Baník Ostrava at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Teplice — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 0.90 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

Baník Ostrava have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters against Teplice's 1 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Teplice in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 54% versus Baník Ostrava 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 48% | Baník Ostrava 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.13 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.932 / defence 1.009 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.682 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.243. Data: 45 Teplice games / 45 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 39% | Draw 36% | Baník Ostrava 25%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.56 | Draw 2.78 | Baník Ostrava 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Baník Ostrava 40% BTTS from recent games.

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