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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Zlin 3-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.56 xG and Zlin 1.20 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.28 / defence 1.07 against Zlin attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 45% | Draw 26% | Zlin 29%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 50%, Zlin 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Zlin's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 2.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights