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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sparta Praha and Teplice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha and Teplice finished level at 2-2 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.87 xG and Teplice 1.04 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Teplice outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.43 / defence 0.96 against Teplice attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 54% | Draw 27% | Teplice 18%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 61%, Teplice 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Teplice's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights