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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Slovácko.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Slovácko 5-2 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.82 xG and Slovácko 1.01 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slovácko outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.48 / defence 1.20 against Slovácko attack 0.77 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 55% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 20%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 63%, Slovácko 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Slovácko's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights