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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha finished level at 1-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.39 xG and Slavia Praha 1.38 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.39 / defence 0.97 against Slavia Praha attack 1.15 / defence 0.78, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 35% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 35%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, Slavia Praha 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights