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Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slavia Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Slavia Praha 2-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.07 xG and Slavia Praha 1.48 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slavia Praha landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.17 / defence 0.94 against Slavia Praha attack 1.31 / defence 0.62, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 26% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 45%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Sparta Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 64%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 2.36 PPG, Slavia Praha 2.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights