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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.40 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.29 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.22 / defence 1.04 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 38% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 33%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 60%, Sigma Olomouc 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights