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Shock result as Sparta Praha defy the odds to beat Plzen 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Plzen 2-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.61 xG and Plzen 1.74 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.36 / defence 1.03 against Plzen attack 1.38 / defence 0.87, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 35% | Draw 25% | Plzen 40%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sparta Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 60%, Plzen 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Plzen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 1.91 PPG, Plzen 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights