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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Sparta Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Sparta Praha 2-4 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.24 xG and Plzen 1.02 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.02 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.26 / defence 0.86 against Plzen attack 1.05 / defence 0.70, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 40% | Draw 32% | Plzen 29%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, Plzen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Plzen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 2.33 PPG, Plzen 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights