Sparta Praha 1-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Championship Round - 5 sees Plzen travel to epet ARENA to take on Sparta Praha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 May 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Praha stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Praha have posted 7W 3D 0L at epet ARENA — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sparta Praha are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sparta Praha register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Plzen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sparta Praha have won 1, Plzen 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 0–4 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 56% versus Plzen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 61% | Plzen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.55 xG and Plzen 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.268 / defence 0.920 | Plzen attack 1.105 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Sparta Praha games / 60 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 42% | Draw 27% | Plzen 31%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Plzen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 60% | Plzen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 42% | Draw 27% | Plzen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Sparta Praha 1.55 / Plzen 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.268 / def 0.920 | Plzen attack 1.105 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Plzen xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Plzen kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Plzen?
Sparta Praha 1 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Plzen part of?
Sparta Praha vs Plzen is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 42% chance of winning, Plzen a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sparta Praha and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Plzen?
Record (3 meetings): Sparta Praha 1W | Draws 0 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Plzen in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Plzen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.27x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.69
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.87
1.31
Plzen xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.31 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 50W 14D 5L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 39W 13D 17L from 69 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Plzen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.48 PPG from 33 outings (25W 7D 1L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 17W 7D 9L from 33 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.96 scored and 1.12 conceded. Plzen's attacking output running into Sparta Praha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Plzen in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 50W 14D 5L in their last 69 games (2.38 PPG), while Plzen have gone 39W 13D 17L in their last 69 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Plzen away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.48 PPG; Plzen away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Plzen in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sparta Praha
3
Draws
5
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 2, Plzen have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 0-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 61%, Plzen 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sparta Praha and 61% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Sparta Praha's games and 61% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sparta Praha's matches and 61% of Plzen's.
Do Sparta Praha and Plzen tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Plzen in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha and Plzen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at epet ARENA, Championship Round - 5, as Sparta Praha and Plzen drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.55 xG and Plzen 1.31 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.27 / defence 0.92 against Plzen attack 1.10 / defence 0.80, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 42% | Draw 27% | Plzen 31%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 61%, Plzen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Plzen's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.