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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Mlada Boleslav 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 3-2 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.54 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.25 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 43% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 30%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 58%, Mlada Boleslav 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights