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Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mlada Boleslav.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 2-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.96 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.38 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.33 / defence 1.05 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.09 / defence 1.10, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 50% | Draw 23% | Mlada Boleslav 26%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights