Sparta Praha 2-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Championship Group - 5 as Sparta Praha welcome Hradec Králové to epet ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at epet ARENA, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Sparta Praha) versus 2.20 (Hradec Králové). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sparta Praha: 7 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Hradec Králové, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Sparta Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 62% versus Hradec Králové 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 59% | Hradec Králové 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.86 xG and Hradec Králové 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.536 / defence 1.022 | Hradec Králové attack 1.046 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.536 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Sparta Praha games / 60 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 50% | Draw 24% | Hradec Králové 26%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Hradec Králové 3.85. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 60% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Group - 5 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 50% | Draw 24% | Hradec Králové 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Sparta Praha 1.86 / Hradec Králové 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.536 / def 1.022 | Hradec Králové attack 1.046 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Hradec Králové xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha 2 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové is a Championship Group - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 50% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Record (8 meetings): Sparta Praha 7W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.54x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.11
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.14
1.28
Hradec Králové xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
4%
24.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.28 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Praha come into this having played 68 games, going 40W 13D 15L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.54 PPG from 68 outings (30W 15D 23L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sparta Praha's home form reads 22W 7D 5L across 34 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.24 points per game from 34 outings (12W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.31 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 40W 13D 15L in their last 68 games (1.96 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 30W 15D 23L in their last 68 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.15 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Sparta Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
0
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 71%, Hradec Králové 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Sparta Praha) and 50% (Hradec Králové). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Sparta Praha's games and 44% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sparta Praha's matches and 50% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Hradec Králové 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Hradec Králové 2-1 at epet ARENA, Championship Group - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.86 xG and Hradec Králové 1.28 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.54 / defence 1.02 against Hradec Králové attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 50% | Draw 24% | Hradec Králové 26%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 59%, Hradec Králové 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.54. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.