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Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hradec Králové.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Hradec Králové 3-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.44 xG and Hradec Králové 1.09 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hradec Králové landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Hradec Králové attack 0.92 / defence 0.85, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 45% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 29%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, Hradec Králové 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights