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FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sparta Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Sparta Praha 1-3 at epet ARENA, Championship Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.62 xG and FK Jablonec 1.13 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FK Jablonec outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.30 / defence 0.96 against FK Jablonec attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 49% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 26%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 61%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with FK Jablonec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights