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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out FK Jablonec 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat FK Jablonec 2-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.50 xG and FK Jablonec 1.27 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.13 / defence 1.04 against FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 41% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 31%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, FK Jablonec 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights