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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out České Budějovice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat České Budějovice 2-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.94 xG and České Budějovice 0.83 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sparta Praha fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.22 / defence 0.91 against České Budějovice attack 0.75 / defence 1.57, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 80% | Draw 12% | České Budějovice 8%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 80%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 63%, České Budějovice 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

České Budějovice's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.65. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights