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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Bohemians 1905 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Bohemians 1905 2-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.48 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.41 / defence 1.00 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 43% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 1905 23%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 59%, Bohemians 1905 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights