Sparta Praha 2-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
epet ARENA plays host to Sparta Praha versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Praha have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Praha have posted 9W 1D 0L at epet ARENA — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Sparta Praha. A 0.90 PPG lead over Bohemians 1905 (2.60 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Bohemians 1905 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sparta Praha lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 6–2 with Sparta Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 58% versus Bohemians 1905 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 61% | Bohemians 1905 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.51 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.386 / defence 0.979 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.075 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Sparta Praha games / 60 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 63% | Draw 20% | Bohemians 1905 18%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Bohemians 1905 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.51 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.83 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 70% | Bohemians 1905 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 63% | Draw 20% | Bohemians 1905 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 68% | xG Sparta Praha 2.51 / Bohemians 1905 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.386 / def 0.979 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.075 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Bohemians 1905 xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Sparta Praha 2 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 63% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Record (3 meetings): Sparta Praha 2W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.39x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.07x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
63%
1.60
20%
5.06
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.83
1.32
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.60
63%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
8%
12.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
1%
69.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.32 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Praha come into this having played 67 games, going 44W 15D 8L for 2.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.31 PPG from 67 outings (24W 16D 27L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sparta Praha's home form reads 25W 7D 2L across 34 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.18 points per game from 34 outings (11W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.48 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 44W 15D 8L in their last 67 games (2.19 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 24W 16D 27L in their last 67 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.41 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
1
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 68%, Bohemians 1905 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sparta Praha and 65% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Sparta Praha's games and 59% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sparta Praha's matches and 65% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Bohemians 1905 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Bohemians 1905 2-1 at epet ARENA, Championship Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.51 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.32 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.39 / defence 0.98 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 63% | Draw 20% | Bohemians 1905 18%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 61%, Bohemians 1905 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.