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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slovan Liberec and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec and Teplice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.04 xG and Teplice 0.68 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.91 / defence 0.76 against Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 0.84, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 42% | Draw 35% | Teplice 22%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 42%, Teplice 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Teplice's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.46 PPG, Teplice 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights