Slovan Liberec vs Teplice – Match Report

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Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Teplice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Teplice 3-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.31 xG and Teplice 1.15 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Teplice attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 39% | Draw 31% | Teplice 31%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 51%, Teplice 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Teplice's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.22 PPG, Teplice 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights